Randy W. Hill's Blog

How About Some Good News?

randywhill — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 21:29:26 +0000

Mortgage rates are still down, job growth is steady, low prices and…..would you believe…..confidence is on the upswing!

I had to include this article because it has been a long time since there were so many positive indicators. Ultimately, this goes back to what I have been saying about buyers and that they are out there with all the bells and whistles; money and the desire to find the right home.

The real news in this article, though, is a comment about available inventory trending down since 2007 and the lowest level since March 2005. I have also written about lack of inventory many times. We all know supply and demand are drivers of prices. If the demand exceeds the supply…. well, you do the math on that one.

http://realtytimes.com/printrtpages/20120130_realestateoutlook.htm

Why Buy A home?

randywhill — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 20:14:46 +0000

I often write that home ownership as a great thing for many reasons (which I won’t repeat now). The attached article lists a few of those reasons but I really wanted to take this opportunity to use this as an example of how our market does not fit in the normal “box”.

We are neither blessed or cursed (depending on your perspective) by the glut of distressed properties on the market. Ours is a highly desirable place to own a home. When distressed properties come along, and they do, we have buyers lined up ready to get a great deal. The irony is that they often end up competing with each other and driving up the price. So, if you are positioning yourself to take advantage of the next wave of foreclosures, keep that in mind.

It is also important to acknowledge that there are buyers for homes in this area. I have many who are simply being patient and waiting for the right home for their needs to come along. I have three deals in Rossmoor recently where the buyers found the home they wanted, recognized what it would take to get it and did just that. They have good jobs, saved their money and realized that this is an incredible opportunity. In fact, they will look back in a few years and be even more happy about the decision they made today.

This article suggests another reason now is a good time to buy is that there aren’t very many buyers out there. Well, there are buyers for good homes in good areas; maybe not as many as there could be, but there are buyers. You can’t expect to find a good home and steal it. You should, in fact, expect to compete.

There has been more and more good news out there from manufacturing to unemployment to housing. With that there is an improved overall feeling of consumer confidence. It will be interesting to see what happens when confidence really does improve.

http://realtytimes.com/rtpages/20120125_whybuy.htm

Recovery in the Works?

randywhill — Mon, 16 Jan 2012 20:47:34 +0000

As with all the news lately, some will pick out the positive while others pick the negative in this article. I think the main factor is that home sales are picking up in more and more markets. Even though there is still that “next wave of foreclosures” out there, we need to keep in mind that they are area specific. The question remains, “How much are they impacting your local market?”

I still stand by my position that we would be far better off in our area if they would all come on the market sooner rather than later. There aren’t enough to saturate our market. In fact, I feel comfortable saying there are far more buyers eager to take advantage of them than are actual distressed opportunities. The sooner they run their course, the sooner buyer mentalities will accept the reality of our current market. Many buyers are waiting for the flood and they may end up waiting longer than they expect, missing what is certainly one of the best buying markets in our lifetimes.

http://realtytimes.com/rtpages/20120116_realestateoutlook.htm

Happy New Year

randywhill — Wed, 04 Jan 2012 01:19:15 +0000

I want to be the first to let you know that there has never been a better time to buy a home than now. I realize there are many questions left to be answered out there but there are also some clear truths as well.

Today’s real estate is generally valued to the year 2003. Interest rates have never been lower. Activity is picking up. There is the beginning of that “I don’t want to be left behind” mentality. Eventually, the sheep will follow, forcing up interest rates and prices; yes both. We read about how higher interest rates will push prices down but what we don’t read about is that the things that will cause interest rates to rise will also cause prices to increase.

Buyers who act in 2012 will certainly look back at this as the year that changed their financial lives for the better. In a few years, they will marvel at the cost of buying a home, relish the position they are in and laugh all the way to the bank!

Real Estate Picking up in 2012?

randywhill — Wed, 23 Nov 2011 21:58:10 +0000

Affordability leads the way; mortgage rates and prices relative to income make this arguably the best time to buy ever.

http://realtytimes.com/printrtpages/20111121_realestateoutlook.htm

Buying a Home Today Costs Less Than it did in 2003

randywhill — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 01:35:15 +0000

This is a pretty dramatic illustration of how low the cost of purchasing a home is today.

http://ftemerson.wordpress.com/2011/11/16/the-price-is-the-same-but-the-cost-is-less/

Home Prices Going up?

randywhill — Mon, 07 Nov 2011 21:07:37 +0000

Take a look at his article from the OC Register on UCLA’s forecast. UCLA does tend to be optimistic and gets criticized for it, but I am seeing the change starting in our area. Good homes (still few and far between) are getting multiple offers and are in demand. The homes that are trending down tend to be those buyers don’t find appealing. Buyers are not compromising but they are paying good money for good homes.

Calif. home price recovery expected in 2012

November 6th, 2011, 1:00 am · http://www.facebook.com/plugins/comments.php?href=http://lansner.ocregister.com/2011/11/06/calif-home-price-recovery-expected-in-2012/143703/&permalink=1· posted by Jeff Collins

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inShare27

*Click on charts to enlarge*

UCLA economists forecast that California home prices will rise steadily over the next six years, although the recovery in home sales isn’t projected to begin until 2013.

The UCLA Anderson Forecast predicted that the median price of an existing single-family home will increase 52.5% by 2017, rising to $438,980.

This year’s median house price is projected to be $287,904, down 0.3% from 2010.

But home prices are projected to turn around in 2012 — jumping 11.5% to $321,138 next year, then rising 10% more in 2013 to $353,411. The recovery is expected to run through 2017.

But house prices still will be below the housing market’s 2006 peak of $560,408 more than 10 years down the road, failing to retake that pinnicle by 2017.

The sales recovery won’t get under way until 2013, the statewide forecast shows. UCLA forecast that:

California home sales will drop to 483,132 single-family home transactions in 2012, down 1.4% from this year’s projected level of 490,137.
Sales will climb from 2013 through 2015, hitting a high-water mark of 547,945 transactions that year.
By 2017, however, sales will settle back to 507,842 transactions — just 3.6% higher than this year’s projected total.
By comparison, California house sales totaled nearly 625,000 transactions a year in 2004 and 2005.

A little context …
MARKET TRENDS Is this construction rebound for real? Calif. home price recovery expected in 2012 O.C. home prices hit 10-month low UCLA: O.C. home prices to rise 35% Analyst: Mortgages for the masses is out of style More price cuts from high-end O.C. house sellers	INDUSTRY NEWS Irvine still dominates local homebuilding O.C. builders: Slowest Sept. in 24 years Gen. Lyon loses majority stake in homebuilder Zillow buys O.C. software firm for $7.8 million Irvine Co.’s Bren wins urban planning award 313 ocean-view home sites to exit bankruptcy

This Home Index Rose Year Over Year

randywhill — Sat, 29 Oct 2011 00:23:04 +0000

Good news, no matter how small, is still good news. Pending home sales rose in September year over year. GDP revised upward. Unemployment forecast down from 9.6 to 8.7.

I know, forecasts have been wrong and even hard data gets revised as time goes by and more info surfaces but, any way you look at it, good news is good news.

The wacky world of the stock market and swings of several hundred points on the slightest news, good or bad, makes futures uncertain for all of us.

But one thing for sure; consumers are aching for good news. Businesses are also longing for good news.

In today’s market, good news brings higher interest rates. I know there are plenty of people who think higher rates will drive home prices down further but the question has to be , “When?’

I know my buyers are conerned about interest rates and a couple are very glad they got rates locked before they moved up. I think rates will have to go up plenty before it stops buyers from making purchases. We haven’t seen any indication of that type of swing. Right now, buyers want to get in while the rates are at the lowest possible point and prices are right there with them.

https://securemail.firstteam.com/exchange/randyhill/Inbox/Pending%20Home%20Sales%20Index%20Rises%20from%20One%20Year%20Ago.EML/Pending%20Home%20Sales%20Index%20Rises%20from%20One%20Year%20Ago.pdf/C58EA28C-18C0-4a97-9AF2-036E93DDAFB3/Pending%20Home%20Sales%20Index%20Rises%20from%20One%20Year%20Ago.pdf?attach=1

Renters Outspend Owners on Housing

randywhill — Wed, 26 Oct 2011 17:54:25 +0000

In terms of household budget, renters spend more of their money on housing than home owners. That may surprise many of you but there are two other huge issues here:

1. Renters have nothing to show for their expense at the end of the day.

2. Renter’s costs are rising faster than owner’s.

This article from RISMedia brings out some significant data and is well worth the quick read.

http://ftemerson.wordpress.com/2011/10/26/renters-outspend-owners-on-housing/

How About Some Reasons Why NOT to Wait to Buy a Home?

randywhill — Wed, 19 Oct 2011 18:11:14 +0000

Check out this blog for reasons not to wait, even if you do think prices will come down further.

http://ftemerson.wordpress.com/2011/10/19/why-do-you-want-to-buy-a-home/